FL Redistricting Spotlights DeSantis   04/28 06:14

   

   TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) -- Ron DeSantis was once the future of the Republican 
Party, a battle-tested conservative twice elected as governor of Florida. Then 
Donald Trump steamrolled him on his way back to the White House.

   Now, more than two years after DeSantis ended his presidential campaign and 
endorsed Trump, the governor is returning to the national spotlight -- at least 
for this week. He's pushing state lawmakers to redraw Florida's congressional 
map as part of a coast-to-coast redistricting battle ahead of November's 
midterm elections. His proposal would make it easier for Republicans to win 
four more seats, equivalent to Democrats' potential gains from last week's 
referendum in Virginia.

   With DeSantis' second term coming to a close, the special legislative 
session that starts Tuesday is one of his final opportunities to remind 
Republicans that he could lead the party one day. But there are also plenty of 
risks ahead for the 47-year-old governor.

   Some Republicans are worried that a new map will backfire and make it easier 
for Democrats to pick up seats. In addition, DeSantis wants lawmakers to 
increase regulations for artificial intelligence and loosen vaccine 
requirements, two proposals that have previously stalled in Tallahassee.

   Trump may be constitutionally barred from running for a third term in 2028, 
but that doesn't mean there's a clear path for DeSantis, who would likely have 
Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio to contend with in a 
Republican primary.

   "The window for Ron looks reasonably narrow at this point," said Whit Ayres, 
who served as DeSantis' pollster in his first campaign for governor in 2018.

   DeSantis, for his part, is embracing the national fight. When House Minority 
Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., last week dared Florida Republicans to go ahead 
with their special session, the governor punched back with the kind of 
aggressiveness he showed in the early days of his failed White House bid.

   "I will pay for you to come down to Florida and campaign," DeSantis said of 
Jeffries. "I'll put you up in the Florida governor's mansion. We'll take you 
fishing."

   DeSantis wants four more Republican seats

   DeSantis unveiled his proposed map to Fox News on Monday even before it had 
been widely circulated among lawmakers. He argued that the 2020 census 
shortchanged the state's population, making it necessary to redraw the lines.

   The governor's map, if approved, would reshape districts in Democratic areas 
around Orlando and Tampa Bay, while also condensing Democratic voters into 
fewer South Florida districts. The changes could cost Reps. Jared Moskowitz and 
Debbie Wasserman Schultz, among others, their seats.

   The current maps yielded a 20 to 8 Republican tilt in 2024. DeSantis' 
version would aim for an advantage of 24 to 4.

   DeSantis first announced the special session back in January, months after 
Trump started pushing Republican-run states to redraw their congressional 
boundaries. What followed has been a tit-for-tat redistricting battle, with 
each party looking for an edge in the midterms.

   There's no guarantee that new maps would play out the way parties hope. For 
example, Texas based its revised lines largely on Trump's performance in 2024, 
theoretically redistributing the president's voters across more districts to 
pull them into the Republican column. But Trump's popularity has waned since 
his reelection, including among Latino voters that figure prominently in the 
state.

   Florida could face a similar conundrum. If the state creates more 
majority-Republican districts but with thinner margins, it could dilute their 
advantage and give Democrats more opportunities to win seats, especially if 
there's an anti-Trump backlash at the polls this year.

   "If Florida moves like it can, the Republicans will at least be even," said 
Karl Rove, a former top political adviser to President George W. Bush. If 
Republicans get too aggressive, "they may lose a seat or two."

   Brian Ballard, an influential Florida lobbyist who has been DeSantis' top 
fundraiser, said it's worth remembering that DeSantis was the muscle behind the 
2021 map that expanded Republicans' advantage in the state to its current 
levels.

   "He's incredibly smart and capable," Ballard said. "And he doesn't get 
enough credit for that map. He's done this before."

   Florida legislative leaders appear hesitant

   Still, DeSantis will be testing his relationships with lawmakers, especially 
in a state House chamber that has grown more willing to buck the governor in 
recent sessions. House Speaker Daniel Perez and Senate President Ben Albritton 
made clear for weeks that they were not drawing their own proposals and would 
react only to what DeSantis put forward.

   Albritton has sent multiple memos to senators reminding them of Florida's 
state constitutional limits on redistricting and the requirement that it not be 
done as a blatantly partisan act. Perez, who convened a redistricting panel 
last year, has said in recent weeks that he expects something to get done, but 
he's been circumspect in his public statements.

   "We're ready to have that conversation," he recently told WPLG in South 
Florida, before DeSantis released his proposal.

   Besides redistricting, other topics won't be much easier. DeSantis wants to 
require tech companies to ensure children cannot interact with chatbots without 
parental permission. He also wants to prevent AI from generating harmful 
material for minors. The proposal will put DeSantis at odds with Trump, who 
wants the federal government to be the regulatory arbitrator of AI technology.

   On vaccines, DeSantis wants to add a conscience-based exemption to public 
school vaccine requirements, similar to the existing religious exemption. The 
push aligns him with the anti-vaccine portion of the Trump base that was 
instrumental in pushing the president to tap Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as his 
health secretary.

   Versions of DeSantis' proposals have passed the state Senate previously but 
did not advance in the state House, where Perez has been skeptical.

   Ballard downplayed concerns. What may seem to some as strained relations 
with certain Republican legislative leaders, he said, is simply measuring 
DeSantis against the opening years of his tenure.

   "I mean, he went from batting a thousand to maybe batting .600," Ballard 
said, using a baseball analogy for the governor who played the sport while 
attending Yale. "That isn't failure."

   The White House is watching

   It's hard to say how the session will affect DeSantis' relationship with 
Trump or the president's supporters.

   Trump grew frustrated at DeSantis when they were competing for the 
Republican presidential nomination, calling him "Ron DeSanctimonious" on the 
campaign trail. The governor, at least initially, gave conservative 
establishment figures and key donors an option other than the then-former 
president.

   But Trump seemingly forgave DeSantis when he dropped out of the race and 
endorsed Trump following his victory in the Iowa caucuses. He even promised to 
call DeSantis by his actual name.

   There's more bad blood within the White House, though. Chief of Staff Susie 
Wiles, a Floridian, managed DeSantis' razor-thin 2018 victory, only for the 
governor to have a falling out with her.

   Wiles did not respond to a request for comment. But Ayres said he's certain 
she's paying attention.

   "Donald Trump has a long memory, and Susie Wiles has a longer one," he said. 
"And that doesn't bode well for Gov. DeSantis to be Donald Trump's Republican 
successor."